economic opportunities and challenges

Good morning. Thank you, Manuel, for your kind introduction. I greatly appreciate the speaking invitation from National Association for Business Economics. And I am very happy to join you today in Cleveland. As you know, I have just come from Washington where Nationals fans are very excited about the World Series. Who knows? They might be meeting the Indians. So, best wishes to both teams.

We are meeting at a moment of serious global concerns: natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, deep political divisions in many countries.

Allow me, then, to bring offer some good news today.

Nearly a decade after the global financial crisis, the global economy is getting better. The most recent IMF forecast, issued in July, projected global growth at 3.5 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2018, up from 3.2 percent in 2016. The Fund will issue its next World Economic Outlook in a week, and there is every reason to see these trends continuing.

This first chart shows how our forecasts have changed over the past five years. The rebound from the crisis took longer than expected to arrive, but we now are seeing positive momentum.

Here in the United States, our July forecast saw growth accelerating from 1.6 percent last year to 2.1 percent this year and next. By early next year, the United States could be experiencing its second-longest expansion since 1850.

Most importantly, many countries are creating new jobs at a healthy pace. Over the past year in the United States, almost 2.2 million jobs were created. As this second chart shows, the unemployment rate is close to the lows we saw in 2000.

What does this mean for the IMF? As the impact of the global crisis has faded, countries have found their financial footing again.

So, our emergency lending has naturally declined—as the chart on the left side of this next slide demonstrates. This is also a good sign. Our outstanding loans are now one-half of their peak in 2012.